Are Housing Blogger's Right about the Housing Crash??

Are Housing Blogger's Right about the Housing Crash?? I would have to say they nailed it with the US Housing Market. It will be the Canadian market next, especially Alberta (which is 6 months into a correction) and BC.

It's been awhile since I posted here, and I thought I had shut this Blog down. Well it's still open and it was interesting to take a read down memory lane.

I started this Blog up to help me collect and organize information on what to do after I sold my house. I ended up buying back in last year, but still feel that the BC Housing Market is going to correct. I am more sure of this now then I was last year.

So am I disappointed that I had bought and didn't wait for this correction to unfold? Not really, making some money would have been nice, but I also enjoy my place. It is my primary residence and not an investment property. If I was flipping, then I would be listing! I have paid off all my credit cards, home equity loans, and will be saving this year. I predict price inflation is next and we will see higher interest rates.

Remember when the TSX was around 14,000 and the Cheerleaders (Economists) were saying that investments will be ever increasing? Listening to the excuses for the recent drops, the reasons why we should buy into it, and the Central Banks cutting rates, is really interesting and scary. It looks like we aren't going to have a soft landing and there are going to be a lot of people hurt by this.

2008 looks like it will be another interesting year for Housing, Stock Markets, and Economy.

So I did it......I bought a house.

Well I did it, I bought a house last week. It was in a great location, the size I wanted, and I got it for 10% less than comparables last summer. I know it's a falling knife but it is what I wanted and location, location. I can cover my mortgage and tax's with rent if I need to and it is in move in condition so I won't have to sink any money into it. I plan on keeping it for many years ahead so unless something happens I will be OK.

I planned on renting for some time but when the perfect house came on the market I decided to go for it. I didn't settle, I wasn't pressured to buy, and I was able to bargain the price down. I know if I waited longer I could save a bit more money. But would I be able to get into the neighbourhood I wanted and the house I wanted??

I want to thank all the Housing Blogs out there for opening my eyes to the other side of the housing industry that the RE Community and Media have failed, until recently to tell. I have learned a lot. If it wasn't for the Housing Blog's I would have bought last Fall and paid more for a house that I wasn't really happy with.

I made some good money on my last house and I have room to take a loss. I still agree that Real Estate is going to correct over the next few years. I don't think BC is going to see the same loss' as the US just like we haven't seen the same gains. I am anticipating a 90's style correction.

My advice to any first time home buyer is to wait. It looks like things are starting to change and public opinion is following. The Media is starting to take notice and even my RE Agent agrees as well. Don't over pay for something just because you are feeling pressured. Wait for the perfect house to come along. While you are waiting prices should be coming down so you are in a win, win situation.

I was going to close this Blog down, but I have decided to keep it going for others to view the feeds I have on the side bar.

Enjoy and good luck in your house hunting,

Uncertain Buyer.

The Pizza Guy.

I am sitting in an empty house so I ordered pizza for lunch. The pizza guy was really interested in what I sold and paid for my house.

He said he was in the market so I told him to check out "Housing Blogs". He proceeded to write it on his hand and said "Thanks!"

P.S. - From where he was sitting he felt the market was slowing down.

Limited Posting, Moving.

I am moving this week so I probably won't be posting. The Blog Feeds on my sidebar automatically update so there is always something new to read. I should be back by the middle of next week.

Make sure you check out January's Housing STATS. I have links on my sidebar, they should be coming out in the next couple of days.

Remember, Real Estate doesn't always go up. "Home price slide not over." Be careful with your money.

Hot Housing Market!! Hurry and buy before they are all gone.

Escondido Condo Fire Slide Show

Vote: Is worst over for housing?

Over at MSNBC there is a POLL being conducting on the future of the Houisng Industry. Go take a look. The current standing is:

Live Vote

Is the worst over for the housing market? * 9200 responses

Yes -- sales and prices will turn up next year.24%
No -- the market will flat-line or keep going downhill.61%
Too soon to say.15%

LINK TO POLL

House Hunting.

Today I decided to look at a couple of houses. I had a moment of weakness where I felt I should just buy a home and get back into the market.

After seeing some of the overpriced fixer-uppers out there I can tell you that I am even more resolved to stay the course and wait it out.

I was talking to one of the neighbours in a potential neighbourhood that I was looking in. One thing she said stood in my mind, "I believe housing is going to bottom out. Who will buy these houses at the prices they are being listed at? Who can afford them?"

I would love to buy a house right now. I like being a home owner, but I get such a sick feeling when I see some of these homes....... that I just can't do it.

Lessons to be learned, South of the Border?

I ask you this, do you think what is going on in the US Housing Market is relevant to us here in Canada? Should we be looking to what is going on there to forecast the future of Canadian Real Estate?

All you have to do is a search and you will see countless News Articles, Blog Sites, and Economists talking about the Housing Decline in the United States.

What makes us different in Canada? What makes Canadian Real Estate different than that of the US Market?

We have experienced the same increases in housing prices the last couple of years. So why is it different when it comes to a decrease??

Keep an open mind and read all that is out there. Don't just listen to Real Estate Professionals that have an interest in you buying a home.

Learn from those that bought in the height of the Real Estate Bubble and now can't sell for what they purchased for. Look at the individuals that bought from Bulders and are now seeing that same Builder trying to sell existing inventory for far less than what they paid only a Year ago.

We may not see the same declines as they have, but are you willing to take a chance with your hard earned money? Are you ready to put it down and watch it evaporate as prices come back to their inflationary normal levels?

You Can't Win Them All.

Yesterday I found out from my Realtor that a House in my neighbourhood sold for about 5% more than what I got for mine. It looks like the price may be justified, considering it was a show home, bigger lot, and custom finishing. I just cannot help but be a little angry.

When you hear this you start to think back and say to yourself, "Could I have done more to get a better dollar for my house?" "Did I sell to quickly?" "Should I have held out for more?"

Every situation is different and every house, though similar, attracts different buyers. Different buyers value different things.

I am still staying the course and renting for awhile to see what next year brings.

The slowing US Economy will not effect Canada??

There seems to be an opinion out there that the slowing US economy will not effect Canada. This article goes against that claim.

StatsCan shows October factory shipments hit lowest level in ...

"Statistics Canada said manufacturers shipped goods worth an estimated
$47.7 billion in October, down 0.1 per cent from September and the lowest level
since December 2004. The drop was less than the 0.5 per cent drop that markets
had forecast, but still showed that manufacturing is struggling with a number of
factors, including the high dollar and the weaker U.S. economy.
The slump in
the U.S. housing market and a restructuring auto sector led by the Big Three
carmakers has cut demand for everything from Canadian lumber, cement and
appliances to auto parts and assembled cars and trucks.
Analysts say the data
will be more grist for the Bank of Canada as it mulls interest rate cuts next
year."

While our biggest customer is slowly moving towards a recession it would be hard not to think that this could not effect us.

If our economy starts to slow done because of what is happening South of the Border I am sure there will be an effect on our housing as well.

News from my Realtor - Mixed Messages

I just got news, from my Realtor, that the owners of a house that I was interested in are very motivitated to sell.

Funny thing is I looked on MLS and they are still at the same price as they were in August. A lot has changed since August so you think a motivated seller would have lowered a little by now.

Are we going to see a lot of this in the future?? Are these motivated sellers going to hold out for higher prices for months on end?? Staying stuborn, even though thay aren't selling, because they cannot bare to reduce their price?

So if the sellers aren't lowering their price then what is it they can do to motivate me? Offer me a new set of knives upon completion?

Why am I doing this Blog??

I have decided to start the "British Columbia Housing Blog" to document my findings and experiences throughout the next year or two as an Uncertain Buyer in todays RE market. I just sold my current home and now I am in the market for a new home. .

Problem is, I cannot bring myself to buy right now

I feel prices are extremely inflated and I have a gut feeling that they will be coming down.

I am not an investor, just a regular guy who got transferred from the Lower Mainland to the Okanagan. I plan on staying there for some time and don't want to make a mistake buying into such an inflated market.

Where are these feelings coming from? Lets start from the beginning.

1. My home did not sell nearly as quickly as others in my neighbourhood did in the previous year. Nor did it sell for as much, about 5% less. Yes it is a nice home in a nice neighbourhood.
2. Other Listings in my neighbourhood have been lowering their prices. Those Listings that haven't aren't selling.
3. What has been happening with the US RE Market and economy is bothering me as well. I truly beleive what happens there will effect Canada.
4. Reading other Blogs on this subject.
5. The November RE numbers are showing declines here in BC and Alberta.
6. As of today, December 7, 2006, the local media is starting to talk about the possibilty of a Housing Crash or Correction. The Bill Good show had a half on the subject and The Vancouver Sun had an article today: Could a big price drop be approaching?
7. Looking back in History to the previous housing booms and busts. This housing boom is on of the largest, so will it be the largest bust?
8. The prices people are asking in the Town that I am re-locating to are just to high, in my mind, for what they are.

Only time will tell and I am willing to wait and see where the RE Market is heading before I make my decission on buying.