Thursday, December 28, 2006

Has the US Housing Downturn ended??


Over the last couple of days this seems to be the housing topic of choice for the media. The numbers show a minor, 0.6%, increase in month to month home sales, even though YOY sales are still down 10% from 2005.

ROBTV just had an economist,1:45 PM EST, from BMO telling us that US housing has hit bottom and is on its way up and the National association of realtors® is all over it as well.

November Existing-Home Sales Rise Again

I am still skeptical. I feel it is the Housing Industry Cheerleaders trying to get buyers off the sidelines. The numbers are not strong enough to start saying there is a change in the market.

It is quite well known that builders have been offering generous incentives to sell their inventory. This isn' t shown in the pricing so the stats look better, even though buyers are recieving a better deal. I personally don't believe the free upgrades have the monetary value they claim, it still attracts buyers.

I am expecting there to be more trouble next year when Listings increase in the Spring. This will bring more competition and builders will need more than fee appliances, landscaping, and vacations to sell their houses.

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