Sunday, December 31, 2006

If the Housing Market is so strong, what's with all the negative News?

I just did a search on for Housing related articles. There are a lot of negative articles out there, along with some positive articles. If you take into consideration what consumers were being told the last couple of years, the Housing Market will never drop, it is different this time, there is no Housing Bubble. Then why are there so many negative articles out there?
  1. Housing 'unsustainable'
  2. US housing bust raises odds of recession
  3. TD warns of housing bubbles in Western Canada
  4. Sagging housing values, high fuel prices strain US shoppers
  5. Canadian housing starts better than expected: CMHC
  6. Drop in housing starts reported across Canada
  7. Western housing market 'vulnerable'
  8. Housing starts drop more than expected
  9. Housing market still sturdy, but cooling
  10. Vancouver housing market really nuts

Saturday, December 30, 2006

Real estate expected to flounder yet another year - US

Sleeping with the fishes?
Real estate expected to flounder yet another year

By Staff & AP Reports
Article Launched: 12/30/2006 07:31:22 AM PST

"The nation's house party ended with a thud in 2006, leaving everyone from condo flippers to Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke waiting to see what would happen next. The sudden stall in home sales, home construction and home prices - and what that will mean for the economy - was voted the top business story of the year by U.S. newspaper and broadcast editors surveyed by The Associated Press. "Full Article.

Real estate expected to flounder in 2007
RACHEL KONRAD, The Associated Press

Donald Anthony has slashed the price on his four-bedroom, two-bathroom house by almost $80,000 — and added $40,000 worth of improvements, including a new kitchen and landscaping in the leafy yard."

"He's used three different agents. He's listed the 1,800-square-foot home — an immaculate ranch on a quiet cul-de-sac — on for-sale-by-owner sites, in newspapers, on cable television and community site Craigslist. He or his agents have spent at least 50 idle afternoons hosting open-house events."

"But the 74-year-old retired physicist cannot unload the house, now listed at $489,950 — well below the price of comparable homes in the fast-growing region between San Francisco and Sacramento." Full Article.

Friday, December 29, 2006

House Hunting.

Today I decided to look at a couple of houses. I had a moment of weakness where I felt I should just buy a home and get back into the market.

After seeing some of the overpriced fixer-uppers out there I can tell you that I am even more resolved to stay the course and wait it out.

I was talking to one of the neighbours in a potential neighbourhood that I was looking in. One thing she said stood in my mind, "I believe housing is going to bottom out. Who will buy these houses at the prices they are being listed at? Who can afford them?"

I would love to buy a house right now. I like being a home owner, but I get such a sick feeling when I see some of these homes....... that I just can't do it.

The Alberta boom has its drawbacks

Growing pains

"CALGARY -- People in boomtown Alberta who hope to grab a cab to that party this holiday season had best start hailing ahead - by about three days. "

""I was told that if we didn't book, we might not get one," says Tim Richter, explaining why he began calling around on a Thursday for a taxi to take him to his Calgary-based company's party on a Saturday night."

"When I called them, they said the cab could be on time or it could be an hour and a half late - they couldn't guarantee the time." "

"While there are jobs a-plenty, the cost of living has soared. Office space and parking in downtown Calgary has eclipsed Toronto as the most expensive - and hardest to find - in Canada. "

Thursday, December 28, 2006

Canadian economy blew hot and cold in 2006

"Hope you enjoyed the economy this past year: 2007 won't be any better and could be noticeably worse as observers forecast a significant slowdown from activity that has been becoming increasingly sluggish in recent months." Full Article.

Existing home sales rise, prices fall - US

Existing home sales price drops, sales are up; weak market shows signs of firming.

"median price of a home sold in November was $218,000, down 3.1 percent from the $225,000 in November 2005."

"While month-to-month prices are somewhat volatile, year-over-year declines in home prices are relatively rare and are seen as a significant sign of weakness in the real estate market. Until it occurred in August, there hadn't been such a drop in 11 years"

"Wachovia economist Phillip Neuhart sees the mild increase in sales as a firming in the foundation of the housing market"

"But Jeoff Hall, chief U.S. economist for Thomson Financial, told that the market hasn't hit bottom yet."

Has the US Housing Downturn ended??

Over the last couple of days this seems to be the housing topic of choice for the media. The numbers show a minor, 0.6%, increase in month to month home sales, even though YOY sales are still down 10% from 2005.

ROBTV just had an economist,1:45 PM EST, from BMO telling us that US housing has hit bottom and is on its way up and the National association of realtors® is all over it as well.

November Existing-Home Sales Rise Again

I am still skeptical. I feel it is the Housing Industry Cheerleaders trying to get buyers off the sidelines. The numbers are not strong enough to start saying there is a change in the market.

It is quite well known that builders have been offering generous incentives to sell their inventory. This isn' t shown in the pricing so the stats look better, even though buyers are recieving a better deal. I personally don't believe the free upgrades have the monetary value they claim, it still attracts buyers.

I am expecting there to be more trouble next year when Listings increase in the Spring. This will bring more competition and builders will need more than fee appliances, landscaping, and vacations to sell their houses.

Wednesday, December 27, 2006

"Home sales have hit the brakes" - US

Home buyers and sellers must break stalemate for sector to move beyond post-boom doldrums.

"The housing market isn't dead, it's stuck.There's a standoff between home buyers and sellers, and the health of the 2007 housing market may depend on who blinks first."

"He and others say it's more of an irrational resoluteness, with buyers and sellers staring each other down: Sellers are clinging adamantly to too-high prices, and buyers are equally adamant about getting a bargain."

"As that impasse has formed, home sales have hit the brakes." Full Article.

Canadian Provinces Competing for Labour.

Alberta has a couple of provinces looking to take back their residents. They have started negative add campaigns pointing out the price of housing, long commutes, and even the line ups in donut shops.

With a thriving Sask. economy, premier calls ex pats in from Alta. pastures

"REGINA (CP) _ If you‘re a Regina native stuck in a merciless Calgary traffic jam on the way home to your cramped suburban duplex or a former Saskatonian who can‘t get a cup of coffee at an understaffed Edmonton doughnut shop, Saskatchewan Premier Lorne Calvert wants you." Full Article.

Maritimers in Alberta seek jobs back home

"An advertising message suggesting homesick Maritimers in Alberta return home has resulted in thousands of inquiries about East Coast jobs.
About 300,000 copies of a glossy insert titled Come Home went out with Alberta newspapers two weeks ago. The supplement profiled Maritimers who returned for jobs in skilled trades, health care and IT." Full Article.

Saskatchewan hopes 2007 will see the return of many prodigal sons and daughters

"Saskatchewan hopes 2007 will see the return of many prodigal sons and daughters carving out a living in Alberta" Full Article.

Tuesday, December 26, 2006

Renting? Waiting for a Housing Decline before you buy? You may like this article.

Renters gloat over housing slump. - US

Some who missed the boom are feeling vindicated now; resisting 'nesting instincts'.

"The housing slump has been painful for millions of people who work in real estate or recently bought a house."

"Dean Baker, an economist, sold his condo during the housing boom and now is renting an apartment for about $2,300 a month. Now, with the housing market in a slump, renters who sat out the boom are finally getting some satisfaction."

"Now that the housing market is slumping, "I feel vindicated," Mr. Jackson says. "But I'm not looking forward to the coming recession." He believes that the housing slowdown and the effects of "a mountain of debt" on consumers will pull the entire economy into a slump."

Sunday, December 24, 2006

Lessons to be learned, South of the Border?

I ask you this, do you think what is going on in the US Housing Market is relevant to us here in Canada? Should we be looking to what is going on there to forecast the future of Canadian Real Estate?

All you have to do is a search and you will see countless News Articles, Blog Sites, and Economists talking about the Housing Decline in the United States.

What makes us different in Canada? What makes Canadian Real Estate different than that of the US Market?

We have experienced the same increases in housing prices the last couple of years. So why is it different when it comes to a decrease??

Keep an open mind and read all that is out there. Don't just listen to Real Estate Professionals that have an interest in you buying a home.

Learn from those that bought in the height of the Real Estate Bubble and now can't sell for what they purchased for. Look at the individuals that bought from Bulders and are now seeing that same Builder trying to sell existing inventory for far less than what they paid only a Year ago.

We may not see the same declines as they have, but are you willing to take a chance with your hard earned money? Are you ready to put it down and watch it evaporate as prices come back to their inflationary normal levels?

Saturday, December 23, 2006

Are Today's Housing Prices Sustainable?

Here are some numbers to think about before you answer that question. Think of your own wage, what you take home after Tax's, Benefits, etc.. Take into account that the average household income, before Tax's, is around $55,000/year.

$200,000 Mortgage over 25 Years =

  • $1279/Month @ 6%

  • $1526/Month @ 8%

  • $1788/Month @ 10%

$300,000 Mortgage over 25 Years =

  • $1919/Month @ 6%

  • $2289/Month @ 8%

  • $2683/Month @10%

$400,000 Mortgage over 25 Years =

  • $2559/Month @ 6%

  • $3052/Month @ 8%

  • $3557/Month @ 10%

You can see how interest can make a huge impact on your payments. Interest rates can go up and the have in the past.

Who can afford these payments?? Based on 35% of Gross Monthly Income.

  • $50,000/Year should be paying around $1458/Month for total house hold expenses
  • $60,000/Year should be paying around $1750/Month for total house hold expenses.
  • $70,000/Year should be paying around $2041/Month for total house hold expenses.
  • $80,000/Year should be paying around $2333/Month for total house hold expenses
  • $100,000/Year should be paying around $2916/Month for total house hold expenses

Don't forget that these are included in you Total Monthly Housing Expenses:

  • Property Tax's, which increase as your property appreciates.
  • Gas and Electricity
  • Garbage and Sewer
  • Metered Water
  • Up Keep, Roof, Hot Water Tank, etc.

What about:

  • Saving for retirement?
  • Saving for Children's Education?
  • Job Loss?
  • Vacation?
  • Furniture for your home.?
  • Clothing, Food.?
  • Car Payments?

It's quite scary when you actually take the time to add it all up.

In Summary:

From what I can see here the only people that can afford to purchase at these prices will be those who are already in the market and have equity, those who have saved up a lot for a down payment, and those who are wealthy.

I don't know what percentage of the population is fortunate enough to be in this situation. But I am sure it isn't enough to sustain the market.

Considering the price of Condos, most "First Time Buyers" have been priced out.

If prices stay like they are all those "Baby Boomers", who want the younger generation to fund their retirement, are not going to be able to find enough qualified buyers.

Friday, December 22, 2006

US Downturn effects Canadian Market

Canadian Stocks Drop for a 2nd Week on U.S. Growth Concerns

" Canadian stocks had a second straight weekly decline, paring the Standard & Poor's/TSX Composite Index's gain for the year to 13 percent, on concern that a cooling U.S. economy will curb demand for Canadian exports. "

"Prospects for the Canadian market depend on how much the U.S. economy is dragged down as the housing market extends a slump, said Marc Lalonde, who oversees $1.1 billion at Louisbourg Investments Inc. in Moncton, New Brunswick. Prices of energy and other commodities will be another swing factor in the market. "

``We've had a good run this year,'' he said. ``You have to watch housing,'' though, because raw materials such as copper for construction ``account for almost 45 percent of the Canadian market.''

"Exports accounted for 38 percent of Canada's $1 trillion economy last year, and 84 percent of the country's merchandise exports went to the U.S., the trade department said in June. Commodities comprise more than half of the exports. "

Wednesday, December 20, 2006

Housing Market Drop Tops the Year's Business News - US

Housing Market Drop Tops the Year's Business News, Builders Nix Projects and Renters Stay Put

"The nation's house party ended with a thud in 2006, leaving everyone from condo flippers to Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke waiting to see what would happen next."

"At the housing market's peak, buyers rushed to open houses, blank checks in hand. Lenders gave big-money mortgages to people who could barely afford their monthly payments. That ended in 2006, when home builders scuttled projects, walked away from land they'd hoped to develop and would-be buyers canceled orders."

"Speculators fled the market. Not only did they stop buying, they put properties they owned up for sale."

""Investors were a bigger part of the market than many thought, including ourselves," Ara K. Hovnanian, the president and chief executive officer of homebuilder Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. said in June."

Tuesday, December 19, 2006

6 strategies to survive the real estate bust - US

Last year the question was whether the housing boom would slow down. Now it's how bad it will get. Fortune's Ellen Florian Kratz helps you navigate the market.

  1. Strategy 1: Lower your expectations
  2. Strategy 2: Drive a hard bargain
  3. Strategy 3: Consider renting
  4. NEXT: Step away from the exotic mortgage
  5. Strategy 5: Shop for a rate drop
  6. Strategy 6: Keep an eye on your equity

External forces dampening Canadian economy in 2007: TD Economics

External forces dampening Canadian economy in 2007: TD Economics

" TORONTO, Dec. 19 /CNW/ - Canada's economic slowdown in 2007 will stemfrom external demand rather than domestic spending according to TD Economics.Its Chief Economist and Senior Vice President, Don Drummond, stated: "Theproblem will be with the American not Canadian consumer.""

"This is not to say that the Canadian economy is free of housing risks.For instance, residents in Vancouver dedicate an inordinate amount of pre-taxincome (+50%) to housing costs, while Alberta's double-digit price growthwon't be sustained. However, a boom-bust cycle can be avoided if price growthcools in the near-term, which seems quite possible given ongoing supportivefundamentals. Some hopeful signs for a potential soft landing have alreadyemerged. New listings are up substantially in Calgary (51% y/y), Edmonton(27% y/y) and Vancouver (19% y/y), which should help alleviate price pressuresin time."

"If a hard landing were to befall the western provinces, it wouldlikely be due to the ripple effect of an unexpected collapse in the U.S.economy, rather than a sharp reversal of domestic fundamentals."

Housing Bubble T-Shirts

"WASHINGTON (Reuters) — Striking a chord with uneasy U.S. property investors,'s latest design — "Mr. Housing Bubble" — has become its best seller in less than a week."

""Mr. Housing Bubble may get a lot of washings before it wears out," she said."

"Phipps' response: "If this thing does pop, a lot of people are going to need an affordable shirt to wear."

Now you can get yourself a Housing Bubble T-Shirt. Gotta love those Americans, they can make money off of anything.

If you're not into T-Shirts you can always get yourself a Housing Bubble Mug, so you can remind youself every morning while you drink your coffee.

Monday, December 18, 2006

Is this the future of Canadian Real Estate??

This is a Business Week article from the United States and it pretty much sums up what is going on there. Is this what we can expect in Canada in the near future?? It's to early to tell, but I wouldn't be surprised. A lot of people in Canada are still pretty positive about Real Estate, and others are a little pessimistic. It's really hard to gauge what is coming next.

"Home prices still have room to decline, and it may take 15
years or more to reach new inflation-adjusted highs "

"Housing prices were pushed up in part by get-rich-quick speculation. Now real estate has lost its grip on the public's imagination"

"Housing booms are short and exciting. Housing busts, on the other hand, are
long and painful. So don't put much faith in those oft-heard assertions that the
worst is already over. Prices are likely to fall further in many markets in

"A BusinessWeek analysis of the past three decades shows that if history repeats itself, it's likely to take 15 years or more for many parts of the country to get back to their inflation-adjusted peaks."

"For residential real estate, the outlook for 2007 ranges from mildly positive to awful. "

"Advice to homeowners: If you need to sell and you're not getting much interest, cut the price by an extreme amount. If you make halfhearted cuts, you'll remain overpriced and you'll follow the market all the way to the bottom."

"Advice to buyers: Bargain hard. Many sellers are still asking for too much. "As tough as our market's been, the toughest thing is to get sellers to understand that prices aren't going up 18% to 20% a year anymore," says Ned Redpath, head of Coldwell Banker Redpath & Co. Realtors in Hanover, N.H."

"THAT SAID, RIGHT NOW is not the ideal time to buy or move up, even with the recent price declines. The inventory of existing homes shot up 34% from October, 2005, to October, 2006, and now stands at nine months' worth of condos and seven months' worth of single-family houses at the current rate of sales. That backlog will take a long time, and a lot of price-cutting, to clear out."

Sunday, December 17, 2006

Time Magazine Person of the Year: You

"It's about the many wresting power from the few and helping one another for nothing and how that will not only change the world, but also change the way the world changes."

"And we are so ready for it. We're ready to balance our diet of predigested news with raw feeds from Baghdad and Boston and Beijing."

"You can learn more about how Americans live just by looking at the backgrounds of YouTube videos—those rumpled bedrooms and toy-strewn basement rec rooms—than you could from 1,000 hours of network television."

Dec. 25, 2006 Vol. 167 No. 51

Some of the "Housing Bubble" Blogs out there helped me make my decision not buy back into the Real Estate Market. They weren't the only reason for my decision, but they had a part in it.

Saturday, December 16, 2006

Good Rental Sites?

Just wondering if anyone knew of a good site for Rentals in BC.


You Can't Win Them All.

Yesterday I found out from my Realtor that a House in my neighbourhood sold for about 5% more than what I got for mine. It looks like the price may be justified, considering it was a show home, bigger lot, and custom finishing. I just cannot help but be a little angry.

When you hear this you start to think back and say to yourself, "Could I have done more to get a better dollar for my house?" "Did I sell to quickly?" "Should I have held out for more?"

Every situation is different and every house, though similar, attracts different buyers. Different buyers value different things.

I am still staying the course and renting for awhile to see what next year brings.

Thursday, December 14, 2006

The slowing US Economy will not effect Canada??

There seems to be an opinion out there that the slowing US economy will not effect Canada. This article goes against that claim.

StatsCan shows October factory shipments hit lowest level in ...

"Statistics Canada said manufacturers shipped goods worth an estimated
$47.7 billion in October, down 0.1 per cent from September and the lowest level
since December 2004. The drop was less than the 0.5 per cent drop that markets
had forecast, but still showed that manufacturing is struggling with a number of
factors, including the high dollar and the weaker U.S. economy.
The slump in
the U.S. housing market and a restructuring auto sector led by the Big Three
carmakers has cut demand for everything from Canadian lumber, cement and
appliances to auto parts and assembled cars and trucks.
Analysts say the data
will be more grist for the Bank of Canada as it mulls interest rate cuts next

While our biggest customer is slowly moving towards a recession it would be hard not to think that this could not effect us.

If our economy starts to slow done because of what is happening South of the Border I am sure there will be an effect on our housing as well.

The Confusion - Why can't the media decide?

Is Housing slowing or is it gaining?? It seems to be a mixed bag ou there concerning Canadian Real Estate. Even once you get into the article the message is not clear. There seems to be a lot of speculation out there on what's going on.

I guess we will be seeing a lot of this in the media until it is quite evident on which way the market is going.

  1. Canada's housing market remains strong as 2006 closes, house ...
  2. Average resale home price drops $3,500 in November
  3. Real estate market has cooled, but still healthy, realtors told

Monday, December 11, 2006

Housing Blogs - A Tribute to my Favorites.

I just wanted take a moment to list out some of my favorite Housing Blogs. These Blogs address the Housing Bubble in Canada and the USA. I find them interesting, entertaining, and educational. It's fun to read them and see there are other "like minded" people out there sharing the same concerns about the Real Estate Bubble.

  1. Vancouver Housing Market Blog - This is my favorite.
  2. vancouver (un)real estate - Another favorite.
  3. Vancouver Condo Info - A good read.
  4. Calgarian Contrarian 2 - Another good Housing Blog from Calgary.
  5. Housing Panic - The Housing Bubble Blog with Attitude - US Housing Bubble Blog.
  6. Financial Planning and Personal Sanity

There are many others out there, these are definetly my favorite out of the Real Estate Blogs I have been reading.

News from my Realtor - Mixed Messages

I just got news, from my Realtor, that the owners of a house that I was interested in are very motivitated to sell.

Funny thing is I looked on MLS and they are still at the same price as they were in August. A lot has changed since August so you think a motivated seller would have lowered a little by now.

Are we going to see a lot of this in the future?? Are these motivated sellers going to hold out for higher prices for months on end?? Staying stuborn, even though thay aren't selling, because they cannot bare to reduce their price?

So if the sellers aren't lowering their price then what is it they can do to motivate me? Offer me a new set of knives upon completion?

Housing Headlines from this week - December 11, 2006

There you have it. The Media is starting to report of Housing declines all over Canada. These Headlines have been in the States for some time now. It seems like it has been only in the last Month the Canadian Media has started to show this side of the housing market.

I will try to do this once a week to see if there is a trend in the reporting.

Sunday, December 10, 2006

I am actually starting to look forward to Renting.

Today I just helped a Buddy move some of my furniture, which he bought, from my house to his. Leading up to this day I was feeling a little depressed about giving up my belongings to someone else. As usual used furniture does not fetch the dollar it was originally bought for.

Well it's all done now and I am actually feeling pretty good about it. It's one less thing I have to move now and I don't seem to miss it. It almost feels liberating not to have that much "stuff" in my house.

It's going to be an interesting New Year. New Town, going from Home Owner to Renter. It's been 8 years of Home Ownership. I wonder if I will find Renting liberating as well? Time will tell. I am starting to look forward to it. It will be interesting to see if all the stress of Home Ownership is worth it. It's been a while since I have been someone's tenant.

IT was kind of interesting to talk to my neighbour who was putting up his X-Mas lights today. He is new to the neighbourhood, just sold his Condo in Vancouver and moved out to the Burbs into a house. All he could say was, "Wish I had stayed in my Apartment." "Looks like I am going to have to paint this House next Year." He doesn't look too happy. I wonder why?? I was ecstatic when I bought my house. Maybe the difference is I can, just barely, afford the mortgage. While he is in for almost Half a Million. Just an assumption.

So is it a Housing Bubble?? Or is the Housing Boom justified?

It seems like there are two distinct schools of though out there about the future of Real Estate in Western Canada.

One side says we are to expect more appreciation next year and the other expects a Housing Crash.

It should be an interesting year, in 2007, to see which side is correct. I know that there have been Housing Bubble Bloggers posting about declines for a couple of years now. The whole time the RE proffession have been there to brag about further increases.

Maybe 2007 will be the year that the Housing Bloggers have been waiting for.

If there is a decline will the RE profession address it?? Or will they continue to tell people it's a good time to buy? I find it interesting how it is a good time to buy when prices are soaring because you will risk being "Priced out of the market" But while prices are declining it is also a good time to buy because "You are in a Buyers Market and there are good deals to be made out there." It seems like it is always a good time to buy. I guess if I stood to make $15K-$20K off of a home sale I would be telling the public the same thing.

Why will Canadian Housing keep appreciating, while US Housing is declining?

This seems to be the spin you get when you bring up the situation in the US to a Canadian RE Professional. They always say that the American Housing slump will not effect Canada.

I disagree and here's why:

  1. Psychology - Just like it caused housing to double in the last few years it will cause it to come down. Why do people think the same fear of being "Priced out of the Market!!" could not be turned around and cause people to be fearful of purchasing declining homes??
  2. Our Exporting Industries - The US is the largest consumer of goods in the world. Sure China is there to consume as well. But our good economy is largely due to the American consumer.
  3. We don't have the same debt as the Americans do. - HAve I missed the Boat?? Last I looked I don't make a 6 figure salary and I'm sure most of us don't. So a $500K house is just not that affordable to the majority. If they are buying it then they are in just as much debt as the American home owner is.
  4. The rate homes appreciated. - It pretty much explains itself. Anything that appreciates that fast without any real reason is probably going to come back to normal. Sure housing may not come back to what it was a couple of years ago, it will still correct towards normality. Why are we so different in Canada?
  5. History - Just look at History. Previous housing booms corrected, so why should this be different?? If anything this time the Boom was even more extreme. So are we going to have a more extreme correction?? Will more people be burned this time and be more skeptical in the future??

We shall see next year. I personally have faith in society as a whole. I am sure more people, especially with the Internet, will wise up to what is happening South of the Border and learn from it. I could be wrong. I could be biased. But I don't think so.

Thursday, December 7, 2006

Was November 2006 the start of the RE decline in Western Canada?

The RE numbers came out a couple of days ago and things seem to be slowing down in the 3 markets I am interested in, Okanagan, Fraser Valley, and Calgary.

Listings are up and prices are down. Is this a sign of things to come or is it just seasonal??? I noticed a slowing in the market when I was selling my home in October/November.

It should be interesting to see what the numbers are like in December and into 2007.

The media is starting to pay attention to the possibility of price decreases in housing; CKNW's Bill Good talked about it for a half hour and the Vancouver Sun had an article titled, "Could a big price drop be approaching?"

It's nice to see the media is starting to tell of the possibility of price decreases instead of always hearing from the RE Boards telling us that prices are going up.

Why am I doing this Blog??

I have decided to start the "British Columbia Housing Blog" to document my findings and experiences throughout the next year or two as an Uncertain Buyer in todays RE market. I just sold my current home and now I am in the market for a new home. .

Problem is, I cannot bring myself to buy right now

I feel prices are extremely inflated and I have a gut feeling that they will be coming down.

I am not an investor, just a regular guy who got transferred from the Lower Mainland to the Okanagan. I plan on staying there for some time and don't want to make a mistake buying into such an inflated market.

Where are these feelings coming from? Lets start from the beginning.

  1. My home did not sell nearly as quickly as others in my neighbourhood did in the previous year. Nor did it sell for as much, about 5% less. Yes it is a nice home in a nice neighbourhood.
  2. Other Listings in my neighbourhood have been lowering their prices. Those Listings that haven't aren't selling.
  3. What has been happening with the US RE Market and economy is bothering me as well. I truly beleive what happens there will effect Canada.
  4. Reading other Blogs on this subject.
  5. The November RE numbers are showing declines here in BC and Alberta.
  6. As of today, December 7, 2006, the local media is starting to talk about the possibilty of a Housing Crash or Correction. The Bill Good show had a half on the subject and The Vancouver Sun had an article today: Could a big price drop be approaching?
  7. Looking back in History to the previous housing booms and busts. This housing boom is on of the largest, so will it be the largest bust?
  8. The prices people are asking in the Town that I am re-locating to are just to high, in my mind, for what they are.

Only time will tell and I am willing to wait and see where the RE Market is heading before I make my decission on buying.


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