Thursday, December 7, 2006

Was November 2006 the start of the RE decline in Western Canada?

The RE numbers came out a couple of days ago and things seem to be slowing down in the 3 markets I am interested in, Okanagan, Fraser Valley, and Calgary.

Listings are up and prices are down. Is this a sign of things to come or is it just seasonal??? I noticed a slowing in the market when I was selling my home in October/November.

It should be interesting to see what the numbers are like in December and into 2007.

The media is starting to pay attention to the possibility of price decreases in housing; CKNW's Bill Good talked about it for a half hour and the Vancouver Sun had an article titled, "Could a big price drop be approaching?"

It's nice to see the media is starting to tell of the possibility of price decreases instead of always hearing from the RE Boards telling us that prices are going up.

Why am I doing this Blog??

I have decided to start the "British Columbia Housing Blog" to document my findings and experiences throughout the next year or two as an Uncertain Buyer in todays RE market. I just sold my current home and now I am in the market for a new home. .

Problem is, I cannot bring myself to buy right now

I feel prices are extremely inflated and I have a gut feeling that they will be coming down.

I am not an investor, just a regular guy who got transferred from the Lower Mainland to the Okanagan. I plan on staying there for some time and don't want to make a mistake buying into such an inflated market.

Where are these feelings coming from? Lets start from the beginning.

  1. My home did not sell nearly as quickly as others in my neighbourhood did in the previous year. Nor did it sell for as much, about 5% less. Yes it is a nice home in a nice neighbourhood.
  2. Other Listings in my neighbourhood have been lowering their prices. Those Listings that haven't aren't selling.
  3. What has been happening with the US RE Market and economy is bothering me as well. I truly beleive what happens there will effect Canada.
  4. Reading other Blogs on this subject.
  5. The November RE numbers are showing declines here in BC and Alberta.
  6. As of today, December 7, 2006, the local media is starting to talk about the possibilty of a Housing Crash or Correction. The Bill Good show had a half on the subject and The Vancouver Sun had an article today: Could a big price drop be approaching?
  7. Looking back in History to the previous housing booms and busts. This housing boom is on of the largest, so will it be the largest bust?
  8. The prices people are asking in the Town that I am re-locating to are just to high, in my mind, for what they are.

Only time will tell and I am willing to wait and see where the RE Market is heading before I make my decission on buying.


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