Saturday, January 27, 2007
The two worst markets over the next 10 years are going to be the U.S. and Japan,
Trend toward short-term investments short sighted
analyst: Investors now keep stocks an average of 11 months
Ray Turchansky, Freelance
Published: Saturday, January 27, 2007
"Opinions presented at this week's Edmonton Charted Financial Analysts Society Forecast Dinner as to where economies and stock markets are headed were literally all over the map."
"The New Yorker said housing woes will torpedo the U.S. and hurt lumber in Canada, while a world wheat shortage could lead to a global recession."
"Nisbet said that the best investment returns during the next few years will come from emerging-market resource-based countries, with the caveat that "global warming is dead serious" and that 15 years from now alternative-energy companies will be the best performers." Full Article.
analyst: Investors now keep stocks an average of 11 months
Ray Turchansky, Freelance
Published: Saturday, January 27, 2007
"Opinions presented at this week's Edmonton Charted Financial Analysts Society Forecast Dinner as to where economies and stock markets are headed were literally all over the map."
"The New Yorker said housing woes will torpedo the U.S. and hurt lumber in Canada, while a world wheat shortage could lead to a global recession."
"Nisbet said that the best investment returns during the next few years will come from emerging-market resource-based countries, with the caveat that "global warming is dead serious" and that 15 years from now alternative-energy companies will be the best performers." Full Article.
Homburg to buy $15.4m worth of land in Calgary
Real estate company Homburg Invest Inc. plans to buy about 16 hectares of land in Calgary for nearly $15.4 million.
The site in northwest Calgary known as Henderson Farms will be developed primarily with 1,000 single family houses, the Halifax company said late Friday.
Homburg said the purchase price includes $12.65 million in cash and financing as well as the issue of 350,000 Class A subordinates voting shares at $6.71 each, worth $2.35 million, to the sellers.
The transaction is slated to close by Feb. 28.
Homburg Invest owns and develops office, retail, industrial and residential apartment and townhouse properties throughout Canada, the United States and Western Europe.
The Canadian Press
The site in northwest Calgary known as Henderson Farms will be developed primarily with 1,000 single family houses, the Halifax company said late Friday.
Homburg said the purchase price includes $12.65 million in cash and financing as well as the issue of 350,000 Class A subordinates voting shares at $6.71 each, worth $2.35 million, to the sellers.
The transaction is slated to close by Feb. 28.
Homburg Invest owns and develops office, retail, industrial and residential apartment and townhouse properties throughout Canada, the United States and Western Europe.
The Canadian Press
Developers adjust as building frenzy eases
Major projects expected to keep activity levels strong
By Monte Stewart - Business Edge
Published: 01/26/2007 - Vol. 4, No. 2
""Last year was just full-go ahead," he said in an interview."
"However, he added, developers and buyers understand there's a slowing trend in real estate sales."" Full Article.
By Monte Stewart - Business Edge
Published: 01/26/2007 - Vol. 4, No. 2
""Last year was just full-go ahead," he said in an interview."
"However, he added, developers and buyers understand there's a slowing trend in real estate sales."" Full Article.
Friday, January 26, 2007
Vancouver Condo Supply up 75%!! Since December 2005.
Supply of condos is exceeding demand
Study: Housing prices are driving many buyers out of the market
Paul Luke, The Province
Published: Friday, January 26, 2007
"Rising prices for condos across the Lower Mainland have triggered a jump in the number of unsold units in new developments, PricewaterhouseCoopers says"
""Consumers have to have a higher income to be able to afford the average product and we very quickly have a diminishing pool of potential buyers.""
"The supply of pre-sale condo units in new developments jumped by more than 55 per cent from 2,780 units in January, 2006 to 4,350 units at the end of December 2006, Hennigar said. In the high-rise category alone, unsold units in pre-sale inventory jumped almost 75 per cent between December 2005 and December 2006." Full Article.
Study: Housing prices are driving many buyers out of the market
Paul Luke, The Province
Published: Friday, January 26, 2007
"Rising prices for condos across the Lower Mainland have triggered a jump in the number of unsold units in new developments, PricewaterhouseCoopers says"
""Consumers have to have a higher income to be able to afford the average product and we very quickly have a diminishing pool of potential buyers.""
"The supply of pre-sale condo units in new developments jumped by more than 55 per cent from 2,780 units in January, 2006 to 4,350 units at the end of December 2006, Hennigar said. In the high-rise category alone, unsold units in pre-sale inventory jumped almost 75 per cent between December 2005 and December 2006." Full Article.
They don't make Houses like they used to, "Thank God for that."
RenoMark raising the bar for consumers
Program sets workmanship standards
By Joy Gregory - Business Edge
Published: 01/26/2007 - Vol. 7, No. 2
"Dudar says when he hears people talk about how they don't build homes like they used to, "I say, 'Thank God for that!' " He's convinced Alberta's new home industry builds some of the best product in the world. He's also convinced those who renovate older homes need to enter the redevelopment with their eyes open, especially if the home has already been renovated - and the current home owner isn't privy to the real scope of work."
"Dudar has seen electrical services that can no longer pass code, carpet covering asbestos tile and heating ducts drilled through structural support beams."
"The homes we go in to renovate (were often built when) there were no true standards." Full Article.
Program sets workmanship standards
By Joy Gregory - Business Edge
Published: 01/26/2007 - Vol. 7, No. 2
"Dudar says when he hears people talk about how they don't build homes like they used to, "I say, 'Thank God for that!' " He's convinced Alberta's new home industry builds some of the best product in the world. He's also convinced those who renovate older homes need to enter the redevelopment with their eyes open, especially if the home has already been renovated - and the current home owner isn't privy to the real scope of work."
"Dudar has seen electrical services that can no longer pass code, carpet covering asbestos tile and heating ducts drilled through structural support beams."
"The homes we go in to renovate (were often built when) there were no true standards." Full Article.
Economist says east-west divide will persist
By CASSIDY OLIVIERStaff reporter
Jan 26 2007
"Strong market prices for oil, natural gas and base metals have bumped the value of the Canadian dollar, but have also created a rift between eastern and western provinces, according to a senior economist"
"He said that, while for the most part there is optimism for the average Canadian, certain economic indicators remain concerning."
"In the West, for example, housing affordability in Calgary and especially in Vancouver have deteriorated dramatically despite a general increase in regional housing starts. " Full Article.
Jan 26 2007
"Strong market prices for oil, natural gas and base metals have bumped the value of the Canadian dollar, but have also created a rift between eastern and western provinces, according to a senior economist"
"He said that, while for the most part there is optimism for the average Canadian, certain economic indicators remain concerning."
"In the West, for example, housing affordability in Calgary and especially in Vancouver have deteriorated dramatically despite a general increase in regional housing starts. " Full Article.
Vancouver Housing Market Blog in The Tyee
The Vancouver Housing Market Blog is in The Tyee today. Check out the Article here. Here's a Link to an older article as well.
Thursday, January 25, 2007
2006 Was the Worst Housing Slump in Nearly 20 Years - US
Finally, some honest Real Estate reporting. I guess it really has to be, in your face, obvious before the MSM will report it.So 2006 is the Worst Housing Slump in 20 years. So what does this mean for Canada?? We have had a slow, arguably declining, market since late summer of 2006.
Is 2007 going to be Canada's Worst Housing Slump in 20 Years????
Has housing market bottomed out?
Sales of existing homes fell in 2006 at fastest rate in nearly 20 years
By John W. Schoen
Senior Producer
MSNBC
"The final housing numbers for 2006 are in, and they confirm what anyone who bought or sold a home last year has suspected: It was the worst housing slump in nearly two decades."
"After a historic five-year boom propelled by a strong economy and low interest rate, the real estate market went bust in 2006, according to the final tally released Thursday by the National Association of Realtors. "
"Double-digit price gains that sparked a frenzy of condo flipping and speculative building also came to an abrupt halt last year. " Full Article.
By John W. Schoen
Senior Producer
MSNBC
"The final housing numbers for 2006 are in, and they confirm what anyone who bought or sold a home last year has suspected: It was the worst housing slump in nearly two decades."
"After a historic five-year boom propelled by a strong economy and low interest rate, the real estate market went bust in 2006, according to the final tally released Thursday by the National Association of Realtors. "
"Double-digit price gains that sparked a frenzy of condo flipping and speculative building also came to an abrupt halt last year. " Full Article.
Biggest existing home sales drop in 17 years
Housing demand down 8.4 percent last year; Dec. sales off 0.8 percent
Updated: 12:47 p.m. PT Jan 25, 2007
"Sales of existing homes fell in December, closing out a year in which demand for homes slumped by the largest amount in 17 years."
"After a five-year boom, housing slowed significantly last year, which has caused ripple effects throughout the economy with rising job layoffs in construction and other housing-related industries."
"David Lereah, chief economist for the Realtors, said that even with the December setback, he still believes that sales of existing homes have hit bottom and will start to gradually improve.
"He said that in 2005, 40 percent of the market represented purchases of second homes and investors buying homes looking to resell them for quick profits."
"He said that speculators had now left the market and that should leave sales at a more sustainable level."
“With fingers and toes crossed, it appears that we have hit bottom in the existing home market,” he said." Full Article.
Updated: 12:47 p.m. PT Jan 25, 2007
"Sales of existing homes fell in December, closing out a year in which demand for homes slumped by the largest amount in 17 years."
"After a five-year boom, housing slowed significantly last year, which has caused ripple effects throughout the economy with rising job layoffs in construction and other housing-related industries."
"David Lereah, chief economist for the Realtors, said that even with the December setback, he still believes that sales of existing homes have hit bottom and will start to gradually improve.
"He said that in 2005, 40 percent of the market represented purchases of second homes and investors buying homes looking to resell them for quick profits."
"He said that speculators had now left the market and that should leave sales at a more sustainable level."
“With fingers and toes crossed, it appears that we have hit bottom in the existing home market,” he said." Full Article.
REMAX Housing Article.
I just wanted to say thanks to 1130AM for doing a non-biased report on this REMAX claim. 1130AM reported, Housing had an annual return of around 5% while the Stock Market would have given you a return of around 10%. They also mentioned that Housing was a lot more volatile over the last 25 years. Furthermore they didn't even mention the RE Industry or REMAX.
Yesterday, REMAX claimed that the Canadian Housing Market had a 11% yearly return on your investment over the last 25 years. The true return was around 3-5% if you use compund interest. It was blatant Spin to encourage people to purchase RE, which was proudly published by our mainstream media. Another thing they failed to mention was the Stock market would have yielded a far better return over the same period. I think most media sources have changed this error in their reports, only after the public brought it to their attention.
A lot of Blogs, yesterday had postings on this where you can get the anti-spin.
Yesterday, REMAX claimed that the Canadian Housing Market had a 11% yearly return on your investment over the last 25 years. The true return was around 3-5% if you use compund interest. It was blatant Spin to encourage people to purchase RE, which was proudly published by our mainstream media. Another thing they failed to mention was the Stock market would have yielded a far better return over the same period. I think most media sources have changed this error in their reports, only after the public brought it to their attention.
"Nationally, the compounded annual rate of return is 5.3 per cent, the real
estate firm said, correcting an earlier release that said average home values appreciated 11 per cent annually over the 25-year period." Globe and Mail
A lot of Blogs, yesterday had postings on this where you can get the anti-spin.
- Math-challenged. Economics-challenged. Reality-challenged
- Realtor Math Invades Canada
- Home values see annual double-digit rises: Re/Max
Remember this every time you see an article in the Paper that quotes the RE Industry. They have a vested interest in you buying and selling your house. It is nothing more than an advertisement.
Wednesday, January 24, 2007
To rent or to buy?
Debate simmers in hot housing market
David Friend, Canadian Press
"TORONTO - Staking a claim in the Canadian housing market has never been this expensive, and it's enough to make some prospective buyers consider renting a long-term home - but is renting going to save money or is buying still worth the investment? "
"Financial planners say both are viable options, depending on your lifestyle choice and personal discipline"
"However, even in a torrid market "you shouldn't think this is really going to be the end-all and be-all, your best investment," Mastracci cautions.
"It may not be - especially if you buy at a high time."
"If you buy today and, lo and behold, real estate values roll back, you're not going to look like such a great investment manager for a while."
"Over 20 to 30 years most homeowners might get an annualized return of four to six per cent, he estimates. " Full Article.
David Friend, Canadian Press
"TORONTO - Staking a claim in the Canadian housing market has never been this expensive, and it's enough to make some prospective buyers consider renting a long-term home - but is renting going to save money or is buying still worth the investment? "
"Financial planners say both are viable options, depending on your lifestyle choice and personal discipline"
"However, even in a torrid market "you shouldn't think this is really going to be the end-all and be-all, your best investment," Mastracci cautions.
"It may not be - especially if you buy at a high time."
"If you buy today and, lo and behold, real estate values roll back, you're not going to look like such a great investment manager for a while."
"Over 20 to 30 years most homeowners might get an annualized return of four to six per cent, he estimates. " Full Article.
Tuesday, January 23, 2007
History may not repeat, but it definitely rhymes.
Boom and Bust in Alberta
An oil boom creates scores of multi-millionaires but then the party ends
"For a while, it seems as if money really did grow on trees. And everyone wanted a piece of the action."
"During the 1970s, the province’s population increased by a third. Four thousand people a month flood into the province, looking for a share of this modern-day gold rush. "
"Apartment vacancy rates approached zero as Ontarians and Maritimers arrived daily in search of high-paying jobs. " Full Article.
An oil boom creates scores of multi-millionaires but then the party ends
"For a while, it seems as if money really did grow on trees. And everyone wanted a piece of the action."
"During the 1970s, the province’s population increased by a third. Four thousand people a month flood into the province, looking for a share of this modern-day gold rush. "
"Apartment vacancy rates approached zero as Ontarians and Maritimers arrived daily in search of high-paying jobs. " Full Article.
Homebuilders Earnings Drop, Stock Rises.
D.R. Horton Profit Plummets
January 23, 2007 5:36 PM ET
"DALLAS (AP) - Fresh reports from two large builders added to signs that the housing market is still sinking, but home-building stocks rose as D.R. Horton Inc. beat Wall Street's grim expectations."
"Horton, the nation's largest homebuilder by deliveries, said earnings fell 64 percent in the last three months of 2006 and orders fell, too."
""We're about 12 months into this slowdown," CEO Don Tomnitz said. "Most of these downturns are longer and deeper (than expected), and right now we don't see anything on the horizon that would change that opinion."" Full Article.
January 23, 2007 5:36 PM ET
"DALLAS (AP) - Fresh reports from two large builders added to signs that the housing market is still sinking, but home-building stocks rose as D.R. Horton Inc. beat Wall Street's grim expectations."
"Horton, the nation's largest homebuilder by deliveries, said earnings fell 64 percent in the last three months of 2006 and orders fell, too."
""We're about 12 months into this slowdown," CEO Don Tomnitz said. "Most of these downturns are longer and deeper (than expected), and right now we don't see anything on the horizon that would change that opinion."" Full Article.
Interest Rate Cuts, Don't Count On It.
Inflation edges up to 1.6%
Last Updated: Tuesday, January 23, 2007 8:20 AM ET
CBC News
"Canada's annual inflation rate rose to 1.6 per cent in December from 1.4 per cent the month before as housing costs rose again and drivers paid more for gasoline."
"Don't expect [Bank of Canada] governor Dodge to even mention rate cuts until we see a rising unemployment rate," he said." Full Article.
Last Updated: Tuesday, January 23, 2007 8:20 AM ET
CBC News
"Canada's annual inflation rate rose to 1.6 per cent in December from 1.4 per cent the month before as housing costs rose again and drivers paid more for gasoline."
"Don't expect [Bank of Canada] governor Dodge to even mention rate cuts until we see a rising unemployment rate," he said." Full Article.
Monday, January 22, 2007
Discount House Sales, COMFree in Lotusland.
ComFREE in Lotusland
'Peg firm takes on Vancouver market
By CHRIS KITCHING, STAFF REPORTER
"Winnipeg-based ComFREE Real Estate -- Canada's largest private sales company -- is expanding into the country's steepest housing market. "
""Vancouver's market is about the same as Winnipeg in a way. It's slowing down (but) being Vancouver, of course, everything is hugely inflated by Winnipeg standards," Dunlop said. "It's a natural market for us. There isn't any market that isn't.""
"We're always going to grow, the MLS is always going to shrink," Dunlop said. "We're probably within a couple years of putting the MLS out of business in Edmonton, which would be the first time that's ever happened."
"Dunlop said ComFREE's franchise in Edmonton controls a third of the market in Alberta's capital city. It has made a bigger splash there than it has in Winnipeg, where it was founded a decade ago." Full Article.
'Peg firm takes on Vancouver market
By CHRIS KITCHING, STAFF REPORTER
"Winnipeg-based ComFREE Real Estate -- Canada's largest private sales company -- is expanding into the country's steepest housing market. "
""Vancouver's market is about the same as Winnipeg in a way. It's slowing down (but) being Vancouver, of course, everything is hugely inflated by Winnipeg standards," Dunlop said. "It's a natural market for us. There isn't any market that isn't.""
"We're always going to grow, the MLS is always going to shrink," Dunlop said. "We're probably within a couple years of putting the MLS out of business in Edmonton, which would be the first time that's ever happened."
"Dunlop said ComFREE's franchise in Edmonton controls a third of the market in Alberta's capital city. It has made a bigger splash there than it has in Winnipeg, where it was founded a decade ago." Full Article.
Housing in Winnipeg in top 10 for affordability.
We’re one cheap city Winnipeg in top 10 for affordability
Mon Jan 22 2007
By Jen Skerritt
"For the second year in a row, Winnipeg was ranked among the most affordable places to live in an international study. Regina is considered the most affordable city in Canada, with Winnipeg and Quebec City tied in second place. "
""Anybody going out to Calgary right now on a job offer is crazy, because the prices of homes are unbelievable, and rent is atrocious," said Suszynski, who recently returned to Winnipeg after living in Calgary since 1993. "
""I had never really planned on coming back, but with prices going the way they are, and with crime way up in Calgary...," Suszynski said. " Full Article.
Mon Jan 22 2007
By Jen Skerritt
"For the second year in a row, Winnipeg was ranked among the most affordable places to live in an international study. Regina is considered the most affordable city in Canada, with Winnipeg and Quebec City tied in second place. "
""Anybody going out to Calgary right now on a job offer is crazy, because the prices of homes are unbelievable, and rent is atrocious," said Suszynski, who recently returned to Winnipeg after living in Calgary since 1993. "
""I had never really planned on coming back, but with prices going the way they are, and with crime way up in Calgary...," Suszynski said. " Full Article.
Is Canada's economic star fading? Weak Demand for Oil?
The commodities sector has carried the market in recent years. Those days may be numbered ?
David Berman, National PostPublished: Monday, January 22, 2007
"If you're wondering whether there has been an important shift in the commodities market, look no further than Jeffrey Rubin. The chief economist and chief strategist at CIBC World Markets has made a name for himself in recent years as one of Canada's strongest energy bulls, arguing that dwindling supplies and surging demand for oil had created a perfect environment for producers: Crude oil, he said, was on its way to US$100 a barrel."
"But today, with oil prices tumbling toward two-year lows and his target off by nearly 50%, Mr. Rubin is taking a second look. It's not because of the warm winter; it has more to do with weak demand, as fuel-conservation measures such as the use of ethanol kick in." Full Article.
David Berman, National PostPublished: Monday, January 22, 2007
"If you're wondering whether there has been an important shift in the commodities market, look no further than Jeffrey Rubin. The chief economist and chief strategist at CIBC World Markets has made a name for himself in recent years as one of Canada's strongest energy bulls, arguing that dwindling supplies and surging demand for oil had created a perfect environment for producers: Crude oil, he said, was on its way to US$100 a barrel."
"But today, with oil prices tumbling toward two-year lows and his target off by nearly 50%, Mr. Rubin is taking a second look. It's not because of the warm winter; it has more to do with weak demand, as fuel-conservation measures such as the use of ethanol kick in." Full Article.
Sunday, January 21, 2007
Vancouver Housing Market, Some Good Advice.
Here is an excellent Video that was presented in the comments section at VHB.
Take a look. Video Link.
U.S. housing market, another shoe to drop.
More volatile trading expected ahead
Malcolm Morrison, Canadian PressPublished: Sunday, January 21, 2007
"But Wolf said investors are in for some downward revisions to earnings estimates going ahead for the energy sector particularly. "
"Those price assumption that had been embedded in prior projections I think at this point look rather too optimistic."
""But we still believe that there is another shoe to drop, so to speak with respect to the U.S. housing market."
"He said there is a good chance that the weakness will spread to consumer spending later in the year, reflecting a levelling off in consumer wealth that is coming from weaker housing market."
"Construction employment is also worrying, he added." Full Article.
Malcolm Morrison, Canadian PressPublished: Sunday, January 21, 2007
"But Wolf said investors are in for some downward revisions to earnings estimates going ahead for the energy sector particularly. "
"Those price assumption that had been embedded in prior projections I think at this point look rather too optimistic."
""But we still believe that there is another shoe to drop, so to speak with respect to the U.S. housing market."
"He said there is a good chance that the weakness will spread to consumer spending later in the year, reflecting a levelling off in consumer wealth that is coming from weaker housing market."
"Construction employment is also worrying, he added." Full Article.
Lack of Housing, 13 Days Straight, Missing Your Family, is all the Money Worth It?
Workers following the dollars to oil-rich northern Alberta
By Doug Struck, Washington Post January 21, 2007
"FORT McMURRAY, Alberta -- The plane from Calgary touched down as a cold dawn cracked the sky, and Rob Smaldon, a compact man wearing a baseball cap, sighed, "Ah, back in paradise." He was joking." Full Article.
By Doug Struck, Washington Post January 21, 2007
"FORT McMURRAY, Alberta -- The plane from Calgary touched down as a cold dawn cracked the sky, and Rob Smaldon, a compact man wearing a baseball cap, sighed, "Ah, back in paradise." He was joking." Full Article.
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