Finally, some honest Real Estate reporting. I guess it really has to be, in your face, obvious before the MSM will report it.So 2006 is the Worst Housing Slump in 20 years. So what does this mean for Canada?? We have had a slow, arguably declining, market since late summer of 2006.
Is 2007 going to be Canada's Worst Housing Slump in 20 Years????
5 comments:
Altough I'm hoping that we are in for "the worst", I'm not so sure that we are.
My recollection of past corrections is that they were relatively swift. I don't know why, but I have a feeling that this is going to be more like a "death by a thousand cuts".
So many people went out on a limb, and in the SFH camp, a lot of the stock was dilapidated. I'm not sure that so many will admit defeat.
I do feel that we will have a significant correction, but I think it will take some time.
I really don't know anything, so my words are just words.
Ontario’s once red-hot home construction market will experience its second straight cool-down year in 2007, the president of the Ontario Home Builders’ Association told an industry conference last week." LINK
"“In the highest growth markets, there were a lot of folks who panicked when they saw prices going up by 8, 10 or 12% a year and rushed to buy in,” says Kermit Baker, a senior research fellow at Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies.
“Once prices started to fall [in high growth markets], speculators got an itchy trigger finger because prices went up so high that it was very difficult to buy; affordability had gotten out of hand and people worried that if they waited six to eight months to sell, they’d be left holding the bag. The result is a short-term adjustment.”
Steadier, more tempered growth translates into a stable real estate conditions because affordability remains in line with local economic conditions." Full Article
I don't think this will be the worst year in 20 years for Canada overall.
The reason for this is that Toronto and much of Southern Ontario experienced a major crash in the early 1990's, and since this market is so big it heavily weights the averages for the whole country.
However I do think that 2007 will be the worst year for BC since the 1980's. I think we're looking at a 4 year decline, at least 25% in total but more likely 40% IMHO.
I believe Vancouver prices will fall. I was burned by the 96/97 SFH westside correction and am expecting payback-having cashed out of a WS SFH in a big way in September.
I beleive we are in for the worst, and point to the latest MLS sales graphs which show a bust after every 3 to 5 year run up in prices. Cnada historically tracks US RE fairly closely with a 6 month to 1 ywear lag.
Post a Comment