Sunday, December 10, 2006

Why will Canadian Housing keep appreciating, while US Housing is declining?

This seems to be the spin you get when you bring up the situation in the US to a Canadian RE Professional. They always say that the American Housing slump will not effect Canada.

I disagree and here's why:

  1. Psychology - Just like it caused housing to double in the last few years it will cause it to come down. Why do people think the same fear of being "Priced out of the Market!!" could not be turned around and cause people to be fearful of purchasing declining homes??
  2. Our Exporting Industries - The US is the largest consumer of goods in the world. Sure China is there to consume as well. But our good economy is largely due to the American consumer.
  3. We don't have the same debt as the Americans do. - HAve I missed the Boat?? Last I looked I don't make a 6 figure salary and I'm sure most of us don't. So a $500K house is just not that affordable to the majority. If they are buying it then they are in just as much debt as the American home owner is.
  4. The rate homes appreciated. - It pretty much explains itself. Anything that appreciates that fast without any real reason is probably going to come back to normal. Sure housing may not come back to what it was a couple of years ago, it will still correct towards normality. Why are we so different in Canada?
  5. History - Just look at History. Previous housing booms corrected, so why should this be different?? If anything this time the Boom was even more extreme. So are we going to have a more extreme correction?? Will more people be burned this time and be more skeptical in the future??

We shall see next year. I personally have faith in society as a whole. I am sure more people, especially with the Internet, will wise up to what is happening South of the Border and learn from it. I could be wrong. I could be biased. But I don't think so.

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